Mathematical modelling and projecting  CO2 by Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Simple exponential smoothing (SES) model for Bangladesh,Bhutan,Nepal and Pakistan

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Published Jun 20, 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31018/jans.v17i2.6351

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Mohammed Nizam Uddin
Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh
Mumtahin Taharima
Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh
Chowdhury Khaled Mahmud
Department of Applied Mathematics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali, Bangladesh
Sofi Mahmud Parvez
Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Southeast University, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
A.N.M. Rezaul Karim
Department of Computer Science & Engineering, International Islamic University Chittagong, Bangladesh

Abstract

The impact of climate change has been a vital problem where CO2 emission is one of the greatest contributors to global warming, and it has a negative effect on the environment.The core objective of this study was to understand, analyse and forecast the future CO2    emission in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and Pakistan using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) models. Annual CO2   emission data produced from various carbon fuels and industries from 1946 to 2021 for Bangladesh, 1970 to 2021 for Bhutan, 1950 to 2021 for Nepal and from 1946 to 2021 for Pakistan were collected from the World Data Bank database and other sources. The study used this data to predict the CO2   emission for the next 27 years, from 2024 to 2050. The ARIMA and SES models with the highest accuracy for Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan were determined by possessing the lowest value of Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) with a graphical representation of ACF and PACF plots. Based on this method, ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMA (0,1,0), ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (0,1,0) were assumed to be the most perfect technique for predicting the CO2   emission in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and Pakistan. These models were used to draw numerical pictures of future CO2   emission. Projected carbon dioxide emission values in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan will increase, indicating major climate change and global warming. Different policies and strategies should be developed to tackle this situation.


 

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Keywords

Carbon dioxide emission, Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) Model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model

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Issue
Vol 17 No 2 (2025)
Section
Research Articles
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How to Cite

Mathematical modelling and projecting  CO2 by Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Simple exponential smoothing (SES) model for Bangladesh,Bhutan,Nepal and Pakistan. (2025). Journal of Applied and Natural Science, 17(2), 821-829. https://doi.org/10.31018/jans.v17i2.6351