Inter-annual variation of the mean temperature and rainfall in Chad and the solar activity during the period from 1950 to 2020
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Abstract
Given the increased variability of rainfall, the resurgence of extreme meteorological phenomena such as droughts, floods, heat waves, and violent winds and considering the influence of solar activity on certain meteorological parameters, a study on the variation of temperature and rainfall in relation to solar activity is necessary. The present study aimed to analyze the inter-annual evolution of meteorological parameters (mean temperature and rainfall) in Chad over the period from 1950 to 2020 in two geographically distinct areas (Sudanian and Sahelian zone) and then to establish a link between these parameters and solar activity to predict the variations of these two parameters over time. The rainfall results showed that the wettest years were 1959 in N'Djamena and 1951 in Moundou. On the other hand, the driest years recorded were 1984 in N'Djamena and 1998 in Moundou. The study of the mean temperature in these two areas during the same period led to the conclusion that the hottest year was 2010 in N'Djamena; however, in Moundou the hottest year recorded was 1997. Globally, in the two zones concerned, analysis of the results on variations in rainfall showed a downward trend. However, the study of average temperature showed a steady rise over the same period. The superposition of rainfall and mean temperature with the sunspot numbers Rz led to the conclusion that high sunspot activity increases temperature and thus warming, while low sunspot activity brings high precipitation.
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Keywords
Chad, Climate variability, Mean temperature, Sunspot number Rz
References
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De Jager, C. (2008). Solar Activity and Its Influence on Climate. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 87 (3), 207-213.
Djeko, M. D. & Seingue, R. G. (2017). Réponses paysannes à la variabilité climatique au sud du Tchad. Afrique SCIENCE, 13, (1), 337- 348.
Doua, A. G., Ouattara, F., Emmanuel, N., François, Z. (2013). foF2 Diurnal Variability at African Equatorial Stations: Dip Equator Secular Displacement Effect. International Journal of Geosciences, 4, 1145-1150. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2013.48108
Eddy, J. A. (1976). Le minimum de Maunder. Sciences 192 (4245), 1189–1202.
Friis-Christensen & Lassen, K. (1991).The length of the solar cycle and indicator of the solar activity close associated with climate. Science, 254 (5032), 698-700.
GIEC (2007a). Bilan des changements climatiques. Contribution des Groupes de travail I, II et III au quatrième Rapport d’évaluation du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat. Genève, Suisse, 53 pp.
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Laurenz, L., Ludecke, H. & Luning, S. (2019). Influence of solar activity changes on European rainfall.
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 185, 29-42.
Legrand, J.P. and Simon, P. (1989). Solar Cycle and Geo-magnetic Activity: A Review for Geophysicists. Part I. The Contributions to Geomagnetic Activity of Shock Waves and of the Solar Wind. Annales Geophysicae, 7, (6), 565-578.
Ly, M., Traoré, S., Alhassane, A. & Sarr, B. (2013). Evolution of some observed climate extremes in the West African Sahel. Weather and Climate Extremes, 1, 19-25.
Maharana, P., Abdel-Lathif, A. Y. & Pattnayak, K. C. (2018). Observed climate variability over Chad using multiple observational and reanalysis datasets. Global and Planetary Change, 162, 252-265.
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Nitka, W. & Burnecki, K. (2019). Impact of solar activity on precipitation in the United States. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 527, 121387.
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Ouattara, F., Amory-Mazaudier, C., Menvielle, M., Simon, P. & Legrand, J.P. (2009). On the Long Term Change in the Geomagnetic Activity during the XXth Century. Annales Geophysicae, 27(5), 2045-2051. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-27-2045-2009.
Ouattara, F. & Amory-Mazaudier, C. (2009). Solar–geomagnetic activity and Aa indices toward a Standard. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys, 71, 1736-1748.
Pattnayak, K. C., Abdel-Lathif, A. Y., Rathakrishnan, K. V., Sing, M., Dash, R. & Maharana, P. (2019). Changing Climate Over Chad: Is the rainfall over the major cities recovering? Earth and Space Science, 6, 7, 1149-1160.
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Sarr, B., Atta, S., Ly, M., Salack, S., Ourback, T., Subsol, S. & Alan, G. D. (2015). Adapting to climate variability and change in small holder farming communities: A case study from Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger. Journal of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, 7 (1), 16-27. https://DOI: 10.5897/JAERD2014.0595.
Stratégie Nationale de Lutte contre les Changements Climatiques au Tchad (SNLCC). (2017). Ministère de l’Environnement, de l’Eau et de la Pèche, pp 14.
Tsiropoula, G. (2003). Signature of Solar Activity Variability in Meteorological Parameters. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 65, (4), 469- 482.
Zerbo, J.L., Ouattara F., Zoundi, C. & Gyébré, A. (2011). A Solar cycle 23 and geomagnetic activity since 1868. Revue CAMES serie A, 12 (2), 255-262.
Zerbo, J.L., Amory-Mazaudier, C., Ouattara, F. & Richardson, J. (2012a). Solar Wind and Geomagnetism, toward a Standard Classification 1868-2009. Annals Geophysicae, 30 (2), 421-426. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-30-421-2012
Zerbo, J.L., Amory-Mazaudier, C. & Ouattara, F. (2012b). Geomagnetism during Solar Cycle 23: Characteristics. Journal of Advanced Research, 4(3), 201, 265- 274. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jare.2012.08.010
Zerbo, J. L., Ouattara, F., Amory-Mazaudier, C. & Legrand, J.P. (2013a). Solar Activity, Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Signatures. Atmospheric and Sciences, 3, 610-617.
Zerbo, J.L., Ouattara, F., Emmanuel, N. (2013b). Solar Activity and Meteorological Fluctuations in West Africa: Temperatures and Pluviometry in Burkina Faso, 1970-2012. International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 3, 408-411.
Bedoum, A., Biona, C. B., Jean-Pierre, B., Adoum, I., Mbiaké, R. & Baohoutou, L. (2017). Évolution des indices des extrêmes climatiques en République du Tchad de 1960 à 2008. Atmosphere-ocean, 55 (1), 42-56.
De Jager, C. (2008). Solar Activity and Its Influence on Climate. Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 87 (3), 207-213.
Djeko, M. D. & Seingue, R. G. (2017). Réponses paysannes à la variabilité climatique au sud du Tchad. Afrique SCIENCE, 13, (1), 337- 348.
Doua, A. G., Ouattara, F., Emmanuel, N., François, Z. (2013). foF2 Diurnal Variability at African Equatorial Stations: Dip Equator Secular Displacement Effect. International Journal of Geosciences, 4, 1145-1150. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2013.48108
Eddy, J. A. (1976). Le minimum de Maunder. Sciences 192 (4245), 1189–1202.
Friis-Christensen & Lassen, K. (1991).The length of the solar cycle and indicator of the solar activity close associated with climate. Science, 254 (5032), 698-700.
GIEC (2007a). Bilan des changements climatiques. Contribution des Groupes de travail I, II et III au quatrième Rapport d’évaluation du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat. Genève, Suisse, 53 pp.
GIEC (2007b). Bilan des changements climatiques. Contribution des Groupes de travail I, II et III au quatrième Rapport d’évaluation du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat. Genève, Suisse, 103 pp.
GIEC (2014). Groupe d’experts Intergouvernemental sur l’Evolution du Climat. Changements climatiques, éléments scientifiques, pp.36 : 11-12.
Hiremath, K.M. & Mandi, P.I. (2004). Influence de l'activité solaire sur les pluies de mousson indiennes. Nouvel Astre, 9 (8), 651 – 662. 10.1016/j.newast.2004.04.001
Hiremath, K. M. (2006). L’influence de l’activité solaire sur les précipitations en Inde : variation d’un cycle à l’autre. Journal d’Astrophysique et d’Astronomie, 27, 367-372.
Laurenz, L., Ludecke, H. & Luning, S. (2019). Influence of solar activity changes on European rainfall.
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 185, 29-42.
Legrand, J.P. and Simon, P. (1989). Solar Cycle and Geo-magnetic Activity: A Review for Geophysicists. Part I. The Contributions to Geomagnetic Activity of Shock Waves and of the Solar Wind. Annales Geophysicae, 7, (6), 565-578.
Ly, M., Traoré, S., Alhassane, A. & Sarr, B. (2013). Evolution of some observed climate extremes in the West African Sahel. Weather and Climate Extremes, 1, 19-25.
Maharana, P., Abdel-Lathif, A. Y. & Pattnayak, K. C. (2018). Observed climate variability over Chad using multiple observational and reanalysis datasets. Global and Planetary Change, 162, 252-265.
Mbaiguedem, M. (2012). Etude de vulnérabilité et adaptation des femmes rurales face au changement climatique: Cas du Département du Chari au Tchad. Mémoire Mastère Changement Climatique et Développement Durable. Centre Régional AGRHYMET, Niger, 85 p.
Mohamed, M. A. & El-Mahdy, M. E. (2021). Impact of sunspot activity on the rainfall patterns over Eastern Africa: a case study of Sudan and South Sudan. Journal of Water and Climate Change (312), 2104- 2124.
Nitka, W. & Burnecki, K. (2019). Impact of solar activity on precipitation in the United States. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 527, 121387.
Obiegbuna, C.D., Orji, O.P. & Enwelum, C.U. (2023). Comparing the impact of solar activities on rainfall under varying climates during the solar cycle 24. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1178 (2023) 012028. doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1178/1/012028
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2022). Chad Situation Report. Retrieved from https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/chad/
Ouattara, F. (2009). Contribution à l’étude des relations entre les deux composantes du champ magnétique solaire et l’ionosphère équatoriale. Thèse d’état soutenue à l’Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar.
Ouattara, F., Amory-Mazaudier, C., Menvielle, M., Simon, P. & Legrand, J.P. (2009). On the Long Term Change in the Geomagnetic Activity during the XXth Century. Annales Geophysicae, 27(5), 2045-2051. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-27-2045-2009.
Ouattara, F. & Amory-Mazaudier, C. (2009). Solar–geomagnetic activity and Aa indices toward a Standard. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys, 71, 1736-1748.
Pattnayak, K. C., Abdel-Lathif, A. Y., Rathakrishnan, K. V., Sing, M., Dash, R. & Maharana, P. (2019). Changing Climate Over Chad: Is the rainfall over the major cities recovering? Earth and Space Science, 6, 7, 1149-1160.
Programme d’Action National d’Adaptation aux changements climatiques (PANA). (2010). PNUD/CCNUCC, pp. 92.
Sarr, B., Atta, S., Ly, M., Salack, S., Ourback, T., Subsol, S. & Alan, G. D. (2015). Adapting to climate variability and change in small holder farming communities: A case study from Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger. Journal of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, 7 (1), 16-27. https://DOI: 10.5897/JAERD2014.0595.
Stratégie Nationale de Lutte contre les Changements Climatiques au Tchad (SNLCC). (2017). Ministère de l’Environnement, de l’Eau et de la Pèche, pp 14.
Tsiropoula, G. (2003). Signature of Solar Activity Variability in Meteorological Parameters. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 65, (4), 469- 482.
Zerbo, J.L., Ouattara F., Zoundi, C. & Gyébré, A. (2011). A Solar cycle 23 and geomagnetic activity since 1868. Revue CAMES serie A, 12 (2), 255-262.
Zerbo, J.L., Amory-Mazaudier, C., Ouattara, F. & Richardson, J. (2012a). Solar Wind and Geomagnetism, toward a Standard Classification 1868-2009. Annals Geophysicae, 30 (2), 421-426. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-30-421-2012
Zerbo, J.L., Amory-Mazaudier, C. & Ouattara, F. (2012b). Geomagnetism during Solar Cycle 23: Characteristics. Journal of Advanced Research, 4(3), 201, 265- 274. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jare.2012.08.010
Zerbo, J. L., Ouattara, F., Amory-Mazaudier, C. & Legrand, J.P. (2013a). Solar Activity, Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Signatures. Atmospheric and Sciences, 3, 610-617.
Zerbo, J.L., Ouattara, F., Emmanuel, N. (2013b). Solar Activity and Meteorological Fluctuations in West Africa: Temperatures and Pluviometry in Burkina Faso, 1970-2012. International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 3, 408-411.
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How to Cite
Inter-annual variation of the mean temperature and rainfall in Chad and the solar activity during the period from 1950 to 2020. (2023). Journal of Applied and Natural Science, 15(3), 1292-1298. https://doi.org/10.31018/jans.v15i3.4836
