Climate change effects on Chickpea yield and its variability in Andhra Pradesh, India
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K. Nirmal Ravi Kumar
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0041-572X
M. Jagan Mohan Reddy
Suresh Chandra Babu
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0041-572X
M. Jagan Mohan Reddy
Suresh Chandra Babu
Abstract
Farmers usually do not know the precise output that is affected by climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall and are characterized by inter-annual variability, part of which is caused by global climate change. No study covers the influences of climate factors on yield and yield risk in the context of chickpea farming in Andhra Pradesh, India. In this context, this study aimed to investigate the trends in climate change variables during Rabi season (October to January, 1996-2020) and evaluated their variability on chickpea yields across different agro-climatic zones in Andhra Pradesh by employing Just and Pope production function. Four non-parametric methods-Alexandersson’s Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, Buishand’s Range Test, Pettitt’s Test and Von Neumann’s Ratio Test are applied to detect homogeneity in the data. Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope (SS) method were employed to analyze monthly rainfall trends and minimum and maximum temperature trends. Results of Just and Pope (panel data) quadratic and Cobb-Douglas methods revealed that monthly minimum temperature positively influenced the mean yield of chickpea (0.22% and 0.16%, respectively). However, rainfall (-0.41% and -0.31%) and maximum temperature (-0.08% and -0.04%) negatively influenced the mean yield of chickpea under quadratic and Cobb-Douglas models, respectively. Accordingly, rainfall (0.08% and 0.06%) and maximum temperature (0.83% and 0.72%) positively influenced the yield variability and minimum temperature (-0.77% and -0.67%) reduced yield variability of chickpea under quadratic and Cobb-Douglas models respectively. In view of these findings, it is imperative to advocate the farmers about the importance of cultivating drought-tolerant chickpea varieties, drought-proofing and mitigation strategies, micro-irrigation practices and improving their access to agro-meteorological information towards sustainable chickpea cultivation in Andhra Pradesh.
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Keywords
Chickpea, Climate, Just and Pope production function, Mann–Kendall test, Panel data, Sen’s slope estimator, Trend analysis
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Boubacar, Inoussa (2012). The effects of drought on crop yields and yield variability: An economic assessment. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(12): 51-60. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v4n12p51
Cabas, J., Weersink, A. & Olale, E. (2010). Crop yield response to economic, site and climatic variables. Climatic Change, 101, 599-616. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9754-4
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Carew, R., Meng, T., Florkowski, W.J., Smith, R. & Blair, D. (2018). Climate change impacts on hard red spring wheat yield and production risk: Evidence from Manitoba, Canada, Can. J. Plant Sci, 98: 782–795 dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjps-2017-0135
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Chen, C.C., & Chang, C.C. (2005). The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: Some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop
insurance. Agricultural Economics, 33, 503 11. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0864.2005.00097.x
Chen, C.C., McCarl, B.A. & Schimmelpfennig, D.E. (2004). Yield variability as influenced by climate: A statistical investigation. Climatic Change, 66, 239-61. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000043159.33816.e5
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Feroze, S.M., Singh, R., Aheibam, M. & Singh, K.L. (2020). Climate change effects on crop yields are evident in North Eastern hills states of India. Indian Journal of Hill Farming, 33 (2), 209-215
Granger, C.W.J., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7
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Haile, Mekbib, G., Tesfamicheal Wossen, Kindie Tesfaye. & Joachim von Braun. (2017). Impact of climate change, weather extremes, and price risk on global food supply. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 1 (1), 55-75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-017-0005-2
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Humayun, K.M.D. (2015). Impacts of climate change on rice yield and variability - An analysis of disaggregate level in the southwestern part of Bangladesh especially
Jessore and Sathkhira districts. J Geogr Nat Disast, 5,3. https://doi.org/10.4172/2167-0587.1000148
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Just, R.E. & Pope, R.D. (1979). Production function estimation and related risk considerations. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61, (2),276–84. https://doi.org/10.2307/1239732
Kendall, M.G. (1975). Rank Correlation Methods; Griffin: London, UK, ISBN 9780852641996.
Kim, M.K. & Pang, A. (2009). Climate change impact on rice yield and production risk. Journal of Rural Development, 32: 17-29. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.90682
Komali Kantamaneni, Louis Rice, Komali Yenneti. & Luiza, C. Campos. (2020). Assessing the vulnerability of agriculture systems to climate change in coastal areas: A Novel Index. Sustainability, 12, 4771; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12114771
Koudahe, K., Djaman, K.,, Kayode, J.A.,, Awokola, S.O. & Adebola, A.A. (2018). Impact of climate variability on crop yields in southern Togo. Environ. Pollut. Clim. Chang, 2, 148. [CrossRef]. https://doi.org/10.4172/2573-458X.1000148
Koundouri, P. & Nauges, C. (2005). On production function estimation with selectivity and risk considerations. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 30(3), 597-608. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.30977
Krishnan, R., Sanjay, J., Chellappan Gnanaseelan, Milind Mujumdar, Ashwini Kulkarni. & Supriyo Chakraborty. (2020). Assessment of climate change over the Indian region - A report of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, ISBN 978-981-15-4327-2 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2
Kumar, A., Sharma, P. & Ambrammal, S.K. (2015). Effects of climatic factors on productivity of cash crops in India: Evidence from state-wise panel data. Glob. J. Res. Soc. Sci., 1, 9–18.
Kumbhakar, S. C. & Tveteras, R. (2003). Risk preferences, production risk, and firm heterogeneity. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 105(2), 275-293. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9442.t01-1-00009
Maddala, G.S. & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631
Mahdiyeh Saei, Hamid Mohammadi, Saman Ziaee. & Sajjad Barkhordari Dourbash. (2019). The impact of climate change on grain yield and yield variability in Iran. Iranian Economic Review, 23, No.2, /511. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1605_66916707
Man-Keun Kim. & Arwin Pang. (2009). Climate change impact on rice yield and production risk. Journal of Rural Development, 32(2), 17～29. https://doi.org/ 10.22004/ag.econ.90682
Mann, H.B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13, 245. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1907187 [CrossRef]
McCarl, B. A., Villavicencio, X. & Wu, X. (2008). Climate change and future analysis: Is stationary dying? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 90(5), 1241-1247. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01211.x
Min, S.K., Legutke, S., Hense, A. & Kwon, W.T.. (2005). Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G. Part I: Near surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 57 (4), 605-621 https://doi.org/ 10.3402/tellusa.v57i4.14712
Mulungu, K., Tembo, G., Bett, H. & Ngoma, H. (2021). Climate change and crop yields in Zambia: Historical effects and future projections. Environ Dev Sustain, 23, 11859–11880. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01146-6
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Climate change effects on Chickpea yield and its variability in Andhra Pradesh, India . (2023). Journal of Applied and Natural Science, 15(1), 178-193. https://doi.org/10.31018/jans.v15i1.4102
