Forecast and error analysis of vegetable production in Haryana by various modeling techniques

Abstract

Crop forecasting is a formidable challenge for every nation. The Government of India has developed a number of forecasting systems. The national and state governments need such pre-harvest forecasts for various policy decisions on storage, distribution, pricing, marketing, import-export and many more. In this paper, univariate forecasting models such as random walk, random walk with drift, moving average, simple exponential smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are considered and analyzed for their efficiency for forecasting vegetable production in the Haryana state. The State annual data on vegetable production were divided into the training data set from 1966-67 to 2013-14 and the test data set from 2014-15 to 2018-19. Suitable models were selected on the basis of error analysis on the training data and a percent error deviation test on the test data. Model diagnostic checking was carried out on ACF and PACF in residual terms through runs above and below the median, runs up and down and Ljung-Box tests. It is inferred that ARIMA (2,1,1) was found to be optimal and that the forecast values for the years 2019-20 to 2023-24 were estimated on the basis of this model, which were 7.82,8.23,8.72,9.2 and 9.72 million tonnes for the year 2019-20 to 2023-24, respectively.  The significance of the mode is that we can forecast the values using this best fit model and forecast values are very important for the policymakers and other government agencies for proper policy decision regarding food security.