Selecting the accurate hydrological method for estimating peak discharge in the Lesti River Catchment Area, Malang Regency, East Java Province, Indonesia
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Abstract
Estimating peak discharge in the catchment poses a challenge for hydrologists due to the potential overflow risks. The present study examined various methods, including Synthetic unit hydrograph, Melchior, and Rational, to determine the peak discharge value in the Lesti River Catchment Area. Accurate hydrological input data is essential for effectively estimating peak discharge and mitigating potential damage or failure. Optimized physical parameters using geographic information systems are critical in generating peak discharge values, emphasizing their importance in the estimation process. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean average error (MAE) were used to determine the accurate method for estimating peak discharge. Analysis results showed varied peak discharge values across different methods, and it found that the MAPE values ranged from 15.15% to 7.48% and the MAE values ranged from 1.47% to 0.63%, respectively. The Nakayasu synthetic unit hydrograph obtained the minimum error measure value compared to other methods by 7.48% in MAPE and 0.63% in MAE. Therefore, the MAPE and MAE performance considered that the Nakayasu was closely approximating the observed peak discharge and a relatively accurate method for estimating peak discharge in the Lesti River catchment area.
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Keywords
Accurate, Catchment, Estimate, Lesti River, Peak discharge
References
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Barid, Burhan & Brillyana Okta Afanda. (2022). Increasing Peak Flow of Snyder Synthetic Hydrograph Units in the Serenan Sub-Watershed of Bengawan Solo Watershed. Astonjadro, 11, 3, 616. https://doi.org/10.32832/astonjadro.v11i3.745 6.
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Ansori, Mohamad Bagus, Umboro Lasminto & Anak Agung Gde Kartika (2023). Flood Hydrograph Analysis Using Synthetic Unit Hydrograph, Hec-Hms, and Hec-Ras 2D Unsteady Flow Precipitation on-Grid Model for Disaster Risk Mitigation. International Journal of GEOMATE, 25, 107:50–58.https://doi.org/10.21660/20 23.10 7.3719.
Armstrong, J. Scott & Fred Collopy (1992). Error Measures for Generalizing about Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons. International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 1: 69–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90008-W.
Avila, Leandro & Humberto, Ávila (2016). Hazard Analysis in Urban Streets Due to Flash Floods: Case Study of Barranquilla, Colombia. World Environmental And Water Resources Congress 2016: Water, Wastewater, and Stormwater and Urban Watershed Symposium-Papers from Sessions of the Proceedings of the 2016 World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, 144, 54. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784479889.016.
Azizian, Asghar (2019). Comparison of Salt Experiments and Empirical Time of Concentration Equations. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Water Management 172, 3, 109–22. https://doi.org/10.1680/jwama.17.00048.
Baiamonte, Giorgio (2020). A Rational Runoff Coefficient for a Revisited Rational Formula. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65, 1, 112–26.https://doi.org/10.1080/ 02626667.2019.1682150.
Barid, Burhan & Brillyana Okta Afanda. (2022). Increasing Peak Flow of Snyder Synthetic Hydrograph Units in the Serenan Sub-Watershed of Bengawan Solo Watershed. Astonjadro, 11, 3, 616. https://doi.org/10.32832/astonjadro.v11i3.745 6.
Bekti, Prihatiningsih, Zaenal Kusuma, Agus Suharyanto & Amin Setyoleksono (2018). Analysis of the Distribution of Domestic Wastewater in the Brantas River Area of Malang City. MATEC Web of Conferences. 195, 5004. https://doi.org/10.10 51/matecconf/201819505004.
Boothroyd, Richard J., Richard D. Williams, Trevor B. Hoey, Craig Mac Donell, Pamela L.M. Tolentino, Laura Quick, Esmael L. Guardian, et al. (2023). National-Scale Geodatabase of Catchment Characteristics in the Philippines for River Management Applications. PLoS ONE, 18, (3 March),1–25. https://doi.org/10. 1371/journal.po ne.0281933.
Bout, B. & V. G. Jetten (2018). The Validity of Flow Approximations When Simulating Catchment-Integrated Flash Floods. Journal of Hydrology, 556, 674–88. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.11.033.
Brirhet, Hassan & Lahcen Benaabidate (2016). Comparison Of Two Hydrological Models (Lumped and Distributed) Over A Pilot Area Of The Issen Watershed In The Souss Basin, Morocco. European Scientific Journal, ESJ, 12, 18, 347. https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2016.v12 n18p347.
Echeverri-Díaz, Jamilton, Óscar E. Coronado-Hernández, Gustavo Gatica, Rodrigo Linfati, Rafael D. Méndez-Anillo & Jairo R. Coronado-Hernández. (2022). Sensitivity of Empirical Equation Parameters for the Calculation of Time of Concentration in Urbanized Watersheds. Water (Switzerland), 14, 18, 1–20. https: //doi.org/10.3390/w14182847.
Februanto, Aaron Jeremy, Lily Montarcih Limantara & Jadfan Sidqi Fidari (2021). Analisis Curah Hujan Serial Terhadap Debit Maksimum Di Sub DAS Lesti, DAS Brantas, Provinsi Jawa Timur. Jurnal Teknologi Dan Rekayasa Sumber Daya Air 1, 2, 826–38. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jtresda.2021.001.02.40.
Gaurav Singh, Vikram & Singh, S.K. (2022). Analysis of Geo-Morphometric and Topo-Hydrological Indices Using COP-DEM: A Case Study of Betwa River Basin, Central India. Geology, Ecology, and Landscapes. https://doi.org/ 10.1080 / 24749508. 2022. 2097376.
Gericke, Ockert J. & Jeff C. Smithers (2014). Review of Methods Used to Estimate Catchment Response Time for the Purpose of Peak Discharge Estimation. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59, 11, 1935–71. https://doi.org/10.1080/026266 67.2013.866712.y4
Goodwin, Paul & Richard Lawton (1999). On the Asymmetry of the Symmetric MAPE. International Journal of Forecasting, 15, 4, 405–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169 -2070(99)00007-2.
Guo, Yuhan, Yongqiang Zhang, Lu Zhang & Zhonggen Wang (2021). Regionalization of Hydrological Modeling for Predicting Streamflow in Ungauged Catchments: A Comprehensive Review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 8, 1. https:// doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1487.
Hidayati, I. K., Suhardjono, D. Harisuseno & A. Suharyanto (2021). Ponding Time in Infiltration Process for Different Land Use. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 930, 1, 12054. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/930/1/ 012054.
Imaaduddiin, Muhammad Hafiizh, Ismail Saud & Rahmad Putra Santoso (2022). Recommendations for Planning Water Infrastructure in the Surabaya City Area with the Influence of Watershed Characteristics to Realize Sustainable Settlement Drainage That Is Safe from Flooding. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1095, 1. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1095/1/0120 33.
Khairina, Samsilah Roslan, Noorlila Ahmad, Zeinab Zaremohzzabieh & Nurazidawati Mohamad Arsad (2020). Predictors of Resilience among Indonesian Students in Malaysian Universities. Asian Journal of University Education, 16, 3, 169–82. https://doi.org/10.24191/ajue.v16 i3.11081.
Kilonzo, F. N. (2022). Data Test and Pre-Treatment for Hydrological Modelling and Applications. Journal of Engineering in Agriculture and the Environment, 8, 1, 14. https://doi.org/10.37017/jeae.v8i1.2.
Kim, Jong Chun & Jongho Jeong. (2021). Parameter Adjustment to Prevent the Overestimation of Peak Discharge in a Small Watershed. Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 21, 6, 285–91. https://doi.org/10.9 798/kosham.2021.21.6.285.
Labdul, B. & A Alitu. (2021). Comparison of Snyder Synthetic Unit Hydrograph with Measured Unit Hydrograph on Bionga Kayubulan. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering 1098 ,2, 022067. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757 -899x/1098/2/022067.
Legono, D., F. Hidayat, D. Sisinggih, S. Wahyuni & A. Suharyanto (2021). Performance of Flushing Efficiency of Sediment Evacuation from Wlingi and Lodoyo Reservoirs. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 930, 1, 12078. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/930/1/012078.
Metselaar, Klaas (2023). The NRCS Curve Number Equation Derived from an Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph: Some Consequences. Journal of Hydrology. X,19, (July 2022), 100151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hydroa.20 23.100151.
Moges, Edom, Yonas Demissie, Laurel Larsen & Fuad Yassin. (2021). Review: Sources of Hydrological Model Uncertainties and Advances in Their Analysis. Water (Switzerland). 13, 1, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13010028.
Natakusumah, Dantje K., Waluyo Hatmoko & Dhemi Harlan (2011). Prosedur Umum Perhitungan Hidrograf Satuan Sintetis Dengan Cara ITB Dan Beberapa Contoh Penerapannya. Jurnal Teknik Sipil. 18, 3, 251. https://doi.org/10.5614/jts.2011. 18.3.6.
Pambudi, A. S. & S. S. Moersidik. (2019). Conservation Direction Based on Estimation of Erosion in Lesti Sub-Watershed, Malang District. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 399, 1, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/399/1/012097.
Pambudi, Andi Setyo, Setyo Sarwanto Moersidik & Mahawan Karuniasa (2021). Analysis of Recent Erosion Hazard Levels and Conservation Policy Recommendations for Lesti Subwatershed, Upper Brantas Watershed. Jurnal Perencanaan Pembangunan: The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning, 5,1, 71–93. https://doi.org/10.36574/jpp.v5i1.167.
Prayudani, S., A. Hizriadi, Y. Y. Lase, Y. Fatmi & Al-Khowarizmi (2019). Analysis Accuracy of Forecasting Measurement Technique on Random K-Nearest Neighbor (RKNN) Using MAPE and MSE. Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1361, 1. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1361/1/012089.
Ren, Louie & Yong Glasure (2009). Applicability of the Revised Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) Approach to Some Popular Normal and Non-Normal Independent Time Series. International Advances in Economic Research, 15, 4, 409–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11294-009-9233-8.
Roestamy, Martin & Mohamad Ali Fulazzaky (2021). A Review of the Water Resources Management for the Brantas River Basin: Challenges in the Transition to an Integrated Water Resources Management. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01933-9.
Ru, Xutong, Hongquan Song, Haoming Xia, Shiyan Zhai, Yaobin Wang, Ruiqi Min, Haopeng Zhang & Longxin Qiao (2022). Effects of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Temperature in Summer over the Yellow River Basin, China. Remote Sensing, 14, 17, 29–40. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14174352.
Saadi, Mohamed, Ludovic Oudin & Pierre Ribstein (2021). Physically Consistent Conceptual Rainfall–Runoff Model for Urbanized Catchments. 599, 126394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126394.
Salvadore, Elga, Jan Bronders & Okke Batelaan (2015). Hydrological Modelling of Urbanized Catchments: A Review and Future Directions. Journal of Hydrology. 529, P1, 62–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.028.
Seong, Kee Won, & Jang Hyun Sung (2021). A Polynomial Method Approximating S-Curve with Limited Availability of Reliable Rainfall Data. Water (Switzerland). 13, 23. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13233447.
Shaikh, Mohamedmaroof P., Sanjaykumar M. Yadav, & Vivek L. Manekar (2022). Assessment of the Empirical Methods for the Development of the Synthetic Unit Hydrograph: A Case Study of a Semi-Arid River Basin. Water Practice and Technology, 17, 1, 139–56. https://doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2021.117.
Suharyanto, Agus (2021). Estimating Flood Inundation Depth along the Arterial Road Based on the Rainfall Intensity. Civil and Environmental Engineering. 17, 1, 66–81. https://doi.org/10.2478/cee-2021-0008.
Suharyanto, Agus, Yatnanta P. Devia & Indradi Wijatmiko (2021). Floodway Design Affected by Land Use Changes in an Urbanized Area. Journal of Water and Land Development. 49, 259. https://doi.org/10.24425/jwld.2021.137120.
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Selecting the accurate hydrological method for estimating peak discharge in the Lesti River Catchment Area, Malang Regency, East Java Province, Indonesia. (2023). Journal of Applied and Natural Science, 15(4), 1595-1607. https://doi.org/10.31018/jans.v15i4.5087
