Mapping of heat vulnerability in Indian Urban Centres under threat of global warming
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Abstract
There is a need for a multi-dimensional approach to map heat vulnerability in urban areas to address the growing threat of heat waves in India. However, heat action planning in India is currently underdeveloped, and previous studies have used diverse and fragmented methods to assess vulnerability. The present study aimed to present a unified framework for mapping heat vulnerability in Indian urban centres based on the systematic review of literature. The framework included three techniques: unweighted additive overlay, weighted additive overlay, and principal component analysis (PCA), for constructing a composite index called the heat vulnerability index (HVI). The PCA-based approach was particularly suitable when multiple criteria were involved in assessing heat vulnerability, as it could capture the underlying relationships between them. Moreover, using GIS-based maps helped to visualize and reveal critical information about vulnerable areas, aiding in identifying priority regions for heat interventions. The study also examines the meaning of HVIs and the sensitivity of the techniques to three factors: the selected indicators, construction method, and scale of analysis. By providing a common framework for assessing heat vulnerability, the study would be helpful to support policymakers in prioritizing interventions to reduce the impact of heat waves on vulnerable populations in Indian cities and beyond, which are also experiencing varying levels of impact from global warming.
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Keywords
Heat waves, Public health, Resilience, Spatial analysis, Urbanization
References
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Bao, J., Li, X., & Yu,Ch. (2015). The Construction and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index, a Review. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health., 12,7220-7234. https;//doi:10.3390/ijerph120707220
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https;//doi 10.1007/s10113-014-0708-7
Callahan, CW. & Mankin, J.S. (2022). Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth. Science Advances, 8 (43). https://doi: 10.1126/sciadv.add3726
Campbell, S., Remenyi, T.A., White,C.J., & Johnston. F.H. (2018). Heatwave and health impact research: A global review. Health & Place, 53 , 210-218 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2018.08.017
Conlon, K.C., Mallen,E., Gronlund,C.J., Berrocal,V.J., Larsen,L. & O’Neill,M.S.(2020). Mapping Human Vulnerability to Extreme Heat: A Critical Assessment of Heat Vulnerability Indices Created Using Principal Components Analysis. Environmental Health Perspective., 128 (9), 097001-1 to 097001-14. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4030.
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Ebi, KL.(2019). Effective heat action plans: research to interventions. Environmental Research Letters, 14, 122001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5ab0
Eun-Soon Im, Pal,J.S. & Eltahir,E.A.B. (2017). Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia. Sci. Adv.,3: e1603322. https://doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1603322
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Maier, G.,Grundstein, A., Jang,W.,Li,Ch.,NAeher,L.P. &Shepherd,M. (2014). Assessing the performance of a vulnerability index during oppressive heat across Georgia, United States. Weather, Climate & Soceity,6(2),253-263. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00037.1
Mallen, E.,Stone,B.,&Lanza,K.(2019). A methodological assessment of extreme heat mortality modelling and heat vulnerability mapping in Dallas, Texas. Urban Climate, 30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100528
Nayak, S.G., Shrestha,S., Kinney,P.l., Ross,Z., Sheridan,S.C., Pantea,C.I., Hsu,W.H., Muscatiello,N. & Hwang,S.A.(2018). Development of a heat vulnerability index for New York State. Public Health, 161,127-137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2017.09.006
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Sheffield, P., Azhar,G.S., Nair,R., Knowlton,K., Jaiswal.A., Mavalankar,P.,& Hess,J. (2013). A Cross-Sectional, Randomized Cluster Sample Survey of Household Vulnerability to Extreme Heat among Slum Dwellers in Ahmedabad, India. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , 10, 2515-2543.https://doi:10.3390/ijerph10062515
Sheridan, S.C., & Allen, M.J. (2018). Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 043001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab214
Tapsell, S.M., Penning-Rowsell,E.C., S. M. Tunstall,S.M. &Wilson,T.L.(2022). Vulnerability to flooding: Health and social dimensions. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A., 360:1511–1525. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1013
Tonmoy, F.N., El-Zein,A. & Hinkel,J. (2014). Assessment of vulnerability to climate change using indicators: a meta-analysis of the literature. WIREs Climate Change, 5,775–792. https:// doi: 10.1002/wcc.314
Tran, L.T.,O’Neill,V.R. & Smith,R.E. (2010). Spatial pattern of environmental vulnerability in the Mid-Atlantic region, USA. Applied Geography, 30 (2), 191–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2009.05.003
Tuholskea, C.,Caylor, K.,Funk,C., Verdin,A., Sweeney, A.,Grace, K., Peterson, P.,& Evans,T. (2021). Global urban population exposure to extreme heat. PNAS, 118 (41) , e2024792118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024 792118
Veena, K. (2020). Urban Heat Island studies: Current status in India and a comparison with the International studies. Journal of Earth System Sciences,129,85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-1351-y
Witze, A. (2022). Extreme Heatwaves: Surprising Lessons from The Record Warmth. Nature 608, 464-465. https://doi: 10.1038/d41586-022-02114-y
Yoon, D.K. (2012). Assessment of social vulnerability to natural disasters: a comparative study Natural Hazards, 63, 823–843. https://doi 10.1007/s11069-012-0189-2
Azhar, G.,Saha,S.,Ganguly,P.,Mavalankar,D. & Madrigano,J. (2017). Heat Wave Vulnerability Mapping for India. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 14,357. https://doi:10.3390/ijerph14040357
Bao, J., Li, X., & Yu,Ch. (2015). The Construction and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index, a Review. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health., 12,7220-7234. https;//doi:10.3390/ijerph120707220
Ford,B.L.,Pearce,T. & Ford,J.D. (2005). Systematic review approaches for climate change adaptation research. Regional Environmental Change, 15,755–769.
https;//doi 10.1007/s10113-014-0708-7
Callahan, CW. & Mankin, J.S. (2022). Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth. Science Advances, 8 (43). https://doi: 10.1126/sciadv.add3726
Campbell, S., Remenyi, T.A., White,C.J., & Johnston. F.H. (2018). Heatwave and health impact research: A global review. Health & Place, 53 , 210-218 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2018.08.017
Conlon, K.C., Mallen,E., Gronlund,C.J., Berrocal,V.J., Larsen,L. & O’Neill,M.S.(2020). Mapping Human Vulnerability to Extreme Heat: A Critical Assessment of Heat Vulnerability Indices Created Using Principal Components Analysis. Environmental Health Perspective., 128 (9), 097001-1 to 097001-14. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4030.
Dubey, A.K., Lal,P., Kumar,A. & Dvornikov,A.Y.(2021). Present and future projections of heatwave hazard-risk over India: A regional earth system model assessment. Environmental Research, 201,111573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.111573
Ebi, KL.(2019). Effective heat action plans: research to interventions. Environmental Research Letters, 14, 122001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5ab0
Eun-Soon Im, Pal,J.S. & Eltahir,E.A.B. (2017). Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia. Sci. Adv.,3: e1603322. https://doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1603322
Hinkel, J. (2011). Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity: towards a clarification of the science-policy interface. Global Environmental Changes, 21,198–208. https;/doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.08.002
Jha, R. (2021). Extreme Heat Events in India’s Cities: A Framework for Adaptive Action Plans. Observer Research Foundation Issue Brief ,437,1-18.
Maier, G.,Grundstein, A., Jang,W.,Li,Ch.,NAeher,L.P. &Shepherd,M. (2014). Assessing the performance of a vulnerability index during oppressive heat across Georgia, United States. Weather, Climate & Soceity,6(2),253-263. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00037.1
Mallen, E.,Stone,B.,&Lanza,K.(2019). A methodological assessment of extreme heat mortality modelling and heat vulnerability mapping in Dallas, Texas. Urban Climate, 30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2019.100528
Nayak, S.G., Shrestha,S., Kinney,P.l., Ross,Z., Sheridan,S.C., Pantea,C.I., Hsu,W.H., Muscatiello,N. & Hwang,S.A.(2018). Development of a heat vulnerability index for New York State. Public Health, 161,127-137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2017.09.006
NDMA.(2021). Beating the Heat: How India Successfully Reduced Mortality Due to Heat Waves.
Niu, Y.,Li,Z.,Gao,Y.,Liu,X., Vardoulakis,S., Yue,Y., Wang,J. & Liu,Q. (2021). A Systematic Review of the Development and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index: Major Factors, Methods, and Spatial Units. Current Climate Change Reports,7,87–97. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-021-00173-3
Rathi, SK. Chakraborty,S., Mishra,S.K., Dutta,S. & Nanda,S. 2021). Heat Vulnerability Index: Spatial Patterns of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity for Urbanites of Four Cities of India. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19, 283. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19010283
Reckien, D. (2018). What is in an index? Construction method, data metric, and weighting scheme determine the outcome of composite social vulnerability indices in New York City. Regional Environmental Change, 18,1439–1451. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1273-7
Reid, C.E., O’Neill, M.S.O., Gronlund,C.J., Brines,S.J., Brown,D.G., Diez-Roux,A.V.,& Schwartz,J. (2009). Mapping Community Determinants of Heat Vulnerability. Environmental Health Perspectives, 117 (11),1730- 1736. https://doi:10.1289/ehp.0900683
Romanello, M. (2021). The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01787-6
Sheffield, P., Azhar,G.S., Nair,R., Knowlton,K., Jaiswal.A., Mavalankar,P.,& Hess,J. (2013). A Cross-Sectional, Randomized Cluster Sample Survey of Household Vulnerability to Extreme Heat among Slum Dwellers in Ahmedabad, India. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , 10, 2515-2543.https://doi:10.3390/ijerph10062515
Sheridan, S.C., & Allen, M.J. (2018). Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 043001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab214
Tapsell, S.M., Penning-Rowsell,E.C., S. M. Tunstall,S.M. &Wilson,T.L.(2022). Vulnerability to flooding: Health and social dimensions. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A., 360:1511–1525. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2002.1013
Tonmoy, F.N., El-Zein,A. & Hinkel,J. (2014). Assessment of vulnerability to climate change using indicators: a meta-analysis of the literature. WIREs Climate Change, 5,775–792. https:// doi: 10.1002/wcc.314
Tran, L.T.,O’Neill,V.R. & Smith,R.E. (2010). Spatial pattern of environmental vulnerability in the Mid-Atlantic region, USA. Applied Geography, 30 (2), 191–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2009.05.003
Tuholskea, C.,Caylor, K.,Funk,C., Verdin,A., Sweeney, A.,Grace, K., Peterson, P.,& Evans,T. (2021). Global urban population exposure to extreme heat. PNAS, 118 (41) , e2024792118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024 792118
Veena, K. (2020). Urban Heat Island studies: Current status in India and a comparison with the International studies. Journal of Earth System Sciences,129,85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-1351-y
Witze, A. (2022). Extreme Heatwaves: Surprising Lessons from The Record Warmth. Nature 608, 464-465. https://doi: 10.1038/d41586-022-02114-y
Yoon, D.K. (2012). Assessment of social vulnerability to natural disasters: a comparative study Natural Hazards, 63, 823–843. https://doi 10.1007/s11069-012-0189-2
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How to Cite
Mapping of heat vulnerability in Indian Urban Centres under threat of global warming. (2023). Journal of Applied and Natural Science, 15(4), 1514-1519. https://doi.org/10.31018/jans.v15i4.5039
