Estimation of annual compound growth rates of guava (Psidium guajava L.) fruit in Haryana using Non linear model

Abstract

Computation of growth rates plays an important role in agricultural and economic research to study growth pattern of a various commodities. Many of the research workers used the parametric approach for computation of annual growth rate but not use the concept of non-linear model.  In this paper, an attempt has been made to study growth rates of guava for three districts (Hisar, and Kurukshetra) and Haryana state as a whole using different non-linear models. The time series data on annual area and production of guava (Psidium guajava L.) in different districts of Haryana from 1990-91 to 2015-16 were collected to fit non linear models. Growth rates were computed through best fitted non-linear models. It was found that Logistic model could be best fit for computation of growth rates of area for guava fruit in Hisar and Kurukshetra district and Haryana state as a whole whereas Gompertz model was best fit for Yamunanagar district based on high R² and least MSE and RMSE values. It was also observed that monomolecular model was best fit for production of guava fruits in Hisar and Yamunanagar district whereas Logistic model was best fit for production of guava fruit in Kurukshetra and Haryana state as a whole because of high R² and least MSE and RMSE values. R and excel software have been used for fitting the non linear model and computation of growth rates for area and production of guava fruit for the year 1990-91 to 2015-16. None has been used the non linear model growth model for computation of annual growth rate of guava fruit for area and production of Haryana state. But in this work non linear growth model has been used for computation of growth rate instead of parametric approaches.