Fish is an essential component of the diet of the most populace in Assam and fish farming has been one of the sources of livelihood in rural areas. Assam ranks first in fish production among North-eastern states of India. However, fish production is not sufficient to meet the demand despite having vast aquatic resources in the state. The present study was undertaken to determine the decadal growth of fish production in the state using the compound growth rate. The study also attempted modeling and forecasting of fish production in Assam using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology. For the present study, time-series data on fish production in Assam from 1980-81 to 2018-19 was obtained from the Directorate of Fisheries, Government of Assam. Data for the period 1980-81 to 2014-15 was utilized to build an ARIMA model and validated through the remaining data from 2015-16 to 2018-19. The best suitable model for the state’s fish production was ARIMA (1,1,0) based on the values of the model selection criterion. The actual fish production and forecast values using a fitted model were in close agreement. The out-of-sample forecast values of fish production in the state for the subsequent years 2019-20 to 2022-23 showed an increasing trend from 336.97 to 358.21 thousand metric tonnes. Considering the vast aquatic resources in the state, the study calls for serious attention by policymakers, researchers, and developmental agencies for harnessing the potential of fisheries resources for making the North-east region self-sufficient in fish production as a whole and Assam in particular.
Fish production, compound growth rate forecast, forecast, Assam, ARIMA
Akaike, H. (1972). Use of an information theoretic quantity for statistical model identification. In: Proceedings of 5th Hawaii international conference on system sciences, pp. 249-250.
Anuja, A., Yadav, V. K., Bharti, V. S. and Kumar, N. R. (2017). Trends in marine fish production in Tamil Nadu using regression and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. J. Appl. & Nat. Sci., 9(2): 653 – 657, doi.org/10.31018/jans.v9i2.1252.
Borah S., Bhattacharjya B.K., Saud B.J., Yadav A.K., Debnath D., Yengkokpam S., Das P., Sharma N., Singh N. S. and Sarma K. K. (2017). Length-weight relationship of six indigenous fish species from Deepor beel, a Ramsar site in Assam, India. Journal of Applied Ichthyology, 33: 655-657, doi.org/10.1111/jai.13348.
Borah, S., Das, P., Bhattacharjya, B. K., Yadav, A. K. Saud, B. J. and Das, B. K. (2020). A report on the occurrence of Bangana dero (Hamilton, 1822) from Deepor beel (Ramsar site no. 1207), Brahmaputra valley, Assam. J. Appl. & Nat. Sci., 12(2): 202-206, doi.org/10.31018/jans.vi.2288.
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M. and Reinsel, G. C. (2007). Time-Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Revised edition, Holden Day.
Chaudhari, D. J. and Tingre, A. S. (2015). Forecasting eggs production in India. Indian Journal of Animal Research, 49(3): 367-372.
DADF (2019). Annual report 2018-19. Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying and Fisheries, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Govt. of India (http://www.dahd.nic.in).
Das, P., Behera, B.K. and Ngachan, S.V. ( 2009). Beels of Assam - an overview. In: Kosygin, L. (ed.), Ecology, Aquatic Bio-resources and conservation of wetlands of North east India, pp. 29-40. Akansha Publishing House, New Delhi (ISBN 978-81-8370-187-7).
Das, B. K., Bhattacharjya, B. K., Borah, S., Das, P., Debnath, D., Yengkokpam, S., Yadav, A. K., Sharma, N., Singh, N. S., Pandit, A., Ekka, A., Mishal, P., Karnatak, G., Kakati, A., Saud, B. J. and Das, S. S. (2017a). Roadmap for development of open water fisheries in North-eastern states, pp. 120. ICAR-CIFRI, Barrackpore.
Das, P., Bhattacharjya, B.K., Yadav, A.K., Debnath, D., Yengkokpam, S., Sarma, K.K., Gogoi, P., Sharma, N., Borah, S., Kakati, A., Ray, B. C. and Das, B. K. (2017b). Impact of fish stock enhancement through in-situ raising of stunted carp fingerlings in pens on fish production. In: Thomas, S. N., Rao, M. B., Madhu, V. R., Asha, K.K., Bisni, P.K., Viji, P., Sajesh, V.K., Jha, P.N. (eds.), Fostering Innovations in Fisheries and Aquaculture: Focus on sustainability and safety- Book of Abstracts, p.228. 11th Indian Fisheries and Aquaculture Forum, ICAR-CIFT, Kochi, India.
Das, P., Borah, S., Yadav, A. K., Bhattarcharjya, B. K. and Das, B. K. (2018). Open-water fisheries of Assam and strategies for its development. Fishing Chimes, 38 (1and 2): 17-28.
Debroy, P., Krishnan, M., Upadhyay, A. D., Ramasubramanian, V., Criddle, K. R., Kiresur, V. R. and Datta, S. K. (2016) Resource distribution, growth and strategies for enhancing fish production in north-eastern states of India. Indian J. Fish., 63(2): 1-7.
DoF (2019). Directorate of Fisheries (DoF), Department of Fisheries, Govt. of Assam, India.
Economic Survey Assam (2018). Economic Survey Assam, 2017-18. Transformation and Development Department, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of Assam. pp.302.
Economic Survey (2019). Economic Survey 2018-19, Vol. 2. Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Govt. of India. pp.468.
Nath, K. D., Borah, S., Yadav, A. K., Bhattacharjya, B. K., Das, P., Deka, P. M., Darngawn, O. and Nath, D. V. D. (2017). Length-weight and length-length relationship of four native fish species from Barak River, Assam, India. Journal of Experimental Zoology, India, 20 (2): 977-979.
Kehinde, O. H. and Joseph, G. E. (2018). Time series modelling for forecasting artisanal fish production in Nigeria. Int. J. Adv. Multidiscip. Res., 5(7): 10-17.
Kumar, J., Yadav, A. K. and Bhattacharjya, B. K. (2017a). A comparative analysis of phytoplankton diversity and abundance during monsoon season in selected beels (wetlands) of Assam, India. J. Appl. Nat. Sci., 9(4): 2285-2290, doi.org/10.31018/jans.v9i4.1525.
Kumar, M., Raman, R. K. & Kumar, S. (2017b). Sugarcane productivity in Bihar: A forecast through ARIMA model. Int. J. Pure App. Biosci., 5(6): 1042-1051, doi.org/10.18782/2320-7051.5838.
Jayasankar, P. (2018). Present status of freshwater aquaculture in India - A review. Indian J. Fish., 65(4): 157-165.
Jeyanthi, P. and Nikita, G. (2012). Growth and instability in Indian frozen scampi export. Fishery Tech., 49: 187-192.
Ljung, G. M. and Box, G. E. P. (1978). On a measure of lack of fit in time series models. Biometrika, 65: 297-303.
Mah, P. J. W., Zali, N. N. M., Ihwal, N. A. M. and Aazizan, N. Z. (2018). Forecasting fresh water and marine fish production in Malasiya using ARIMA and ARFIMA models. Malaysian Journal of Computing, 3(2): 81-92.
Mehmood, Q., Sial, M. H., Sharif, S., Hussain, A., Riaz, M. and Sahneen, N. (2020). Forecasting the fisheries production in Pakistan for the year 2017-26, using Box-Jenkin’s methodology. Pak. J. Agri. Res., 33(1): 140-145.
Mishra, P., Fatih, C., Niranjan, H. K., Tiwari, S., Devi, M. and Dubey, A. (2020). Modelling and forecasting of filk production in Chhattisgarh and India. Indian Journal of Animal Research, doi.org/10.18805/ijar.B-3918.
Paul, R. K. and Das, M. K. (2010). Statistical modelling of Inland fish production in India. Journal Inland Fisheries Society of India, 42(2): 1-7.
Raman, R. K., Sathianandan, T. V., Sharma, A. P. and Mohanty, B. P. (2017). Modelling and Forecasting Marine Fish Production in Odisha. National Academy Science Letters, 40(6): 393-397, doi.org/10.1007/s40009-017-0581-2.
Salim, S. S. and Biradar, R. S. (2009), Indian shrimp trade: reflections and prospects in the post WTO era. Asian Fisheries Science, 22: 805-821.
Sarkar, U. K., Mishal P., Borah, S., Karnatak, G., Chandra, G., Kumari, S., Meena, D. K., Debnath, D., Yengkokpam, S., Das, P., Debroy, P., Yadav, A. K., Aftabuddin, Md., Gogoi, P., Pandit, A., Bhattacharjya, B. K., Tayung, T., Lianthuamluaia, L. and Das, B. K. (2020). Status, potential, prospects and issues of floodplain wetland fisheries in India: Synthesis and review for sustainable management. Reviews in Fisheries Science and Aquaculture, doi.org/10.1080/23308249.2020.1779650.
Schwartz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics, 6: 461–464
Sharma, H. (2017). Growth and instability of inland fish production in India. Fishery Tech., 54: 151-161.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) © Author (s)